Influence of harvest, climate and wolf predation on Yellowstone elk, 1961-2004

摘要: In the period following wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction to Yellowstone National Park (1995-2004), northern elk (Gervus elaphus) herd declined from - 17 000 ∼8000 (8.1% yr -1 ). The extent which predation contributed this decline is not obvious because influence of other factors (human harvest and lower than average annual rainfall) on dynamics has been quantified. To assess contribution decline, we built assessed models based elk-related data prior (1961 1995). We then used best these predict how might have realized after (1995 2004) had wolves never reintroduced. performing model predicted 64% variance in growth rate included abundance, rate. snowfall, precipitation as predictor variables. also suggest that may be super-additive. That is, for every one percent increase rate, population declines by more percent. Harvest accounted ∼47% observed variation According best-performing model, accounts climate, would expected 7.9% per year, average, between 1995 2004. Within limits uncertainty, are trivial, climate justified explanations most decline. true, 2004 was primarily compensatory.