Rate of increase as a function of rainfall for house mouse Mus domesticus populations in a cereal-growing region in southern Australia

摘要: Summary 1. Mouse plagues are a significant problem to agricultural areas of Australia, causing millions dollars damage. This study was conducted determine if rainfall could explain the occurrence mouse plagues. 2. On average, data on abundance were collected every month, using mark-release-recapture techniques, from Victorian Mallee cereal-growing region, February 1983 October 1994. No December 1990 September 1992. Three mice occurred during these 12 years. We examined rate increase populations as function antecedent rainfall. 3. The highest observed per month 1986 (r = 1·86). The decrease 1984 (r = –2·85). maximum used in numerical response 1·16 month–1. best estimate for robs = –6·79 + 7·95 (1 – e–1·11V). 4. The against 6-month accumulated that lagged by 0, 3 and 6 months. fit model lag months. 5. Two systems described. plague system when responded rainfall: increased following high decreased low rainfall. non-plague exponential independent: crashed after unable respond at least 2 years thereafter. 6. The two suggest there is ‘biological memory’ masks effect minimum period plague. memory appears be associated with time since last plague, population (including shifts age structure) previous year, spring decline. If predict assist their management, biology must known.