Structured elicitation of expert judgement for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions

摘要: When a potentially dangerous volcano becomes restless, civil authorities invariably turn to scientific specialists help them anticipate what the will do next, and provide with guidance as likely threats. Although it is usually possible discern earliest signs of unrest, science forecasting course timing eruptions remains inexact. In this chapter, recent volcanic crises in Eastern Caribbean are recounted order trace emergence need for volcanologists formalise way they present advice such circumstances. The conversation then moves on concepts principles eliciting expert opinion, structured elicitation within mathematical framework, before describing more detail specific performance-based procedure opinions that relies proper scoring rules. Ways which its basis have been adapted use Montserrat crisis discussed, purposes formalized has used during eruption, application hazard risk management, described. Finally, few general observations offered respect benefits limitations using