Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios

摘要: Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force distributional limitation, shifts and losses expected. Nevertheless, in spite modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys fauna-wide effects, evidence change-mediated several species, the likely effects change species' distributions remain little known, community-level almost completely unexplored. Here, using genetic algorithm museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 occurring Mexico project them onto two surfaces modelled 2055. Although extinctions drastic range reductions predicted be relatively few, turnover some local communities is high (>40% species), suggesting that severe perturbations may result.