Comparison of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper epizootics in British harbour seal Phoca vitulina populations.

摘要: In 1988 and 2002 dramatic well-documented phocine distemper epizootics occurred in Europe. While their progression impact were remarkably similar consistent over much of Europe, mortality the UK varied greatly between within 2 epizootics. We use antibody lev- els blood samples to show that 51% (Bayesian 95% CI: 41 61%) individuals alive 5 harbour seal populations at end epizootic had been exposed virus, equivalent figure after outbreak was 22% (95% 16 30%). Antibody prevalence significantly higher females than males epizootic. Combining these estimates with information on reductions numbers animals observed hauled out during surveys Wash, Moray Firth, Orkney a simple epidemiological model, suggests differences primarily due 27% 8 43%) fall R0, basic reproductive rate virus. The large geographic variation population effects each appears have mainly case mortal- ity, R0 being all investigated.