Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned.

摘要: A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during winter (Dec-Feb) sea surface temperatures (SST) tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate seasonal outbreak following monsoons from August November. Climate studies indicated role regional precipitation over Bangladesh mediating this long-distance effect. Motivated by previous evidence, we took advantage strong 2015-2016 Nino event evaluate predictability dynamics for city recent times based on two transmission models that incorporate SST are fitted earlier surveillance records starting 1995. We implemented mechanistic temporal model incorporates both epidemiological processes effect ENSO, as well previously published statistical resolves space at level districts (thanas). Prediction accuracy was evaluated with "out-of-fit" data same efforts (post 2008 2010 respectively), comparing total number cases observed season those predicted simulations eight twelve months ahead, January each year. Although forecasts were accurate low risk years preceding Nino, also probability observing large fall 2016. Observed up Oct 2016 did not show evidence an anomalous season. discuss these predictions context local climate conditions, which despite rainfall anomalies, inundation Dhaka remained low. Possible explanations patterns given together future implications directions improve their prediction city.