Reducing Uncertainty in Chemistry Climate Model Predictions of Stratospheric Ozone

摘要: Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to predict the future evolution of stratospheric ozone as ozone-depleting substances decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling stratosphere. CCM predictions exhibit many common features, but also a broad range values for quantities such year ozone-return-to-1980 global level at end 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied each 14 CCMs separate response chlorine change from that due change. We show sensitivity lower atmosphere deltaO3/deltaCly near function partitioning total inorganic (Cly) into its reservoirs; both Cly controlled by atmospheric transport. with realistic transport agree observations reservoirs produce similar responses After 2035 differences in contribute little spread results anthropogenic contribution becomes unimportant. Differences among upper increases temperature decreases explained deltaO3/deltaT different contributions various loss processes, their own dependence. In atmosphere, tropical caused predicted speed-up Brewer-Dobson circulation may or not be balanced middle high latitude increases, contributing most late century predictions.