Ensemble simulations of the decline and recovery of stratospheric ozone

摘要: [1] An ensemble of simulations a coupled chemistry-climate model is completed for 1960–2100. The are divided into two periods, 1960–2005 and 1990–2100. modeled total ozone amount decrease throughout the atmosphere from 1960s until about 2000–2005, depending on latitude. Antarctic hole develops rapidly in late 1970s, agreement with observations, but it does not disappear 2065, 15 years later than previous estimates. Spring averaged takes even longer to recover 1980 values. Ozone amounts determined largely by halogen amounts. In contrast, Arctic, recovers values 25–35 earlier, recovery criterion adopted. By end 21st century, climate change associated greenhouse gas changes gives rise significant superrecovery Arctic less marked Antarctic. For both polar regions, interannual variability greater future past, hence timing full very sensitive definition recovery. It suggested that range rates between hemispheres simulated related overall increase strength Brewer-Dobson circulation, driven increases concentrations.