Reducing risk in reserve selection using Modern Portfolio Theory: Coastal planning under sea‐level rise

摘要: 1. Climate change is expected to impact many species and ecosystem services, although it difficult predict when how these impacts may arise. Due this uncertainty, plan management actions, such as designating protected areas, intended adapt climate impacts. The danger of ignoring uncertainty that resulting plans fail achieve conservation objectives, yet not usually incorporated in planning.2. Recent studies have accounted for by applying Modern Portfolio Theory-an approach risk-sensitive resource allocation used the finance sector-to planning. However, approaches are directly applicable planning problems typically include discrete site selection, multiple objectives a consideration connectivity.3. We extend previous applications Theory incorporating additional requirements context designing reserve system apply conserving coastal wetlands associated services under uncertain rates sea-level rise. This allows us identify an optimal set properties preserve, while maintaining connectivity landward migration accounting risk. compare spatial resulted from our selection ignored risk determine whether, how, explicitly alters outcomes.4. demonstrate rise, but high-risk strategy, even worst-case rise scenario. In contrast, diversifying through can ensure supply reducing failure across all scenarios.