Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model ☆

摘要: Abstract Crude oil, natural gas liquids, heavy oils, deepwater and polar oils are non-renewable energy resources with increasing extraction costs. Two major definitions emerge: regular or ‘cheap’ oil non-conventional ‘heavy’ oil. Peaking time in conventional production has been a recent focus of debate. For two decades, have mixed crude estimation the rate at which may be expected to decline, following peak, more difficult determine. We propose two-wave model for world pattern forecasting, based on diffusion innovation theories: sequential multi-Bass model. Historical well-known shocks confirmed, new peaking times determined corresponding depletion rates. In final section, possible ties between dynamics refining capacities discussed as predictive symptom an imminent peak 2016.