An evolutionary real options framework for the design and management of projects and systems with complex real options and exercising conditions
作者： Stephen X. Zhang , Vladan Babovic
DOI: 10.1016/J.DSS.2010.12.001
关键词: Project management 、 Decision analysis 、 Real options valuation 、 Genetic algorithm 、 Evolutionary algorithm 、 Strategic planning 、 Portfolio 、 Operations research 、 Decision support system 、 Project portfolio management 、 Computer science
摘要: To address the issue of decision support for designing and managing flexible projects systems in face uncertainties, this paper integrates real options valuation, analysis techniques, Monte Carlo simulations evolutionary algorithms an framework. The proposed framework searches optimized portfolio makes adaptive plans to cope with uncertainties as future unfolds. Exemplified through a test case, not only compares favorably traditional fixed design approaches but also delivers considerable improvements over prevailing practices.
elsevier.com
acm.org 
sci-hub.se 参考文章(48)
Carliss Y. Baldwin, Kim B. Clark, Design Rules: The Power of Modularity Volume 1 MIT Press. ,(1999)
Terrence W. Faulkner, Applying ‘Options Thinking’ To R&D Valuation Research-technology Management. ,vol. 39, pp. 50- 56 ,(1996) , 10.1080/08956308.1996.11671064
Carliss Y. Baldwin, Kim B. Clark, Design Rules The MIT Press. ,(2000) , 10.7551/MITPRESS/2366.001.0001
Lenos Trigeorgis, Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation ,(1996)
Johnathan Mun, Real Options Analysis : Tools and Techniques for Valuing Strategic Investments and Decisions ,(2002)
Ronald A. Howard, James E. Matheson, Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis ,(1989)
R. Hassan, R. de Neufville, D. McKinnon, Value-at-risk analysis for real options in complex engineered systems systems, man and cybernetics. ,vol. 4, pp. 3697- 3704 ,(2005) , 10.1109/ICSMC.2005.1571721
Dolev Cfir, Cory MacCumbee, Tracey Crider, Yoke Chuang Yon, Shannon Hoffmann, Jacob McIlvaine, Jennifer Lorio, Russ Wyllie, Chee Mun Ng, Tiong Ngee Teo, Swee Jin Koh, Kim Hua Er, Robert Malloch, Chin Khoon Quek, Jeff Buschmann, Kok Meng Chang, Han Hiong Ang, Yew Seng How, Yu Chih Hsu, Nai Kwan Tan, David Walton, Rick Kratzer, Wee Tuan Khoo, Chay Chua, Dinesh Raghavan, Micah Kelley, Joel Lim, Enrique Garcia, Chris McCarthy, Lawrence Liang, Guillermo Guillermo Ferraris, Matt Wiens, Serdar Sari, William Westmoreland, David Rummler, Amos Teo, Matthew Tong, Greg Woelfel, Alexis Wise, Keat Hoe Yeoh, Hasan Gungor, Winston Ong, Mark Tan, Hong-Siang Teo, Tat Lee Lim, John Lukacs, Maritime domain protection in the Straits of Malacca Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School. ,(2005)
James G. March, Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice The Bell Journal of Economics. ,vol. 9, pp. 587- 608 ,(1978) , 10.1017/CBO9780511598951.004
Marion A. Brach, Real Options in Practice ,(2002)