Valuing flexibilities in the design of urban water management systems.

摘要: Abstract Climate change and rapid urbanization requires decision-makers to develop a long-term forward assessment on sustainable urban water management projects. This is further complicated by the difficulties of assessing designs various design scenarios from an economic standpoint. A conventional valuation approach for projects, like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, fails incorporate uncertainties, such as amount rainfall, unit cost water, other uncertainties associated with future changes in technological domains. Such also include value flexibility, which enables managers adapt reconfigure systems over time uncertainty unfolds. work describes integrated framework investments under uncertainty. It extends DCF analysis through explicit considerations flexibility management. The incorporates intelligent decision-making mechanisms that enable avoid downside risks increase opportunities upside gains range possible futures. catchment area Singapore was chosen assess flexible extension standard drainage canals deployment novel technology based green roofs porous pavements. Results show integrating explicitly into process can reduce initial capital expenditure, improve investment, learn more about system requirements during lifetime project.