Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

作者: U.S. ten Brink , J.D. Chaytor , E.L. Geist , D.S. Brothers , B.D. Andrews

DOI: 10.1016/J.MARGEO.2014.02.011

关键词: FluvialNatural hazardSeismologyGlacial periodHazardSubmarine landslideMargin (machine learning)LandslideGeologyContinental shelf

摘要: Abstract Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying mitigate its impacts. These are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along margin general low, confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found, suggesting low rate hazard. However, devastating 1929 Grand Banks Canada shows that these events continue occur. Densely populated areas, extensive industrial port facilities, presence ten nuclear power plants coast, make region highly vulnerable flooding by tsunamis therefore even low-probability need be evaluated. We can presently draw several tentative conclusions regarding coast. Landslide likely constitute biggest Only small number landslides so far dated they generally older than 10,000 years. The geographical distribution expected uneven depend on seismic Pleistocene sediment. do see evidence gas hydrate dissociation contributes generation Analysis landslide statistics fluvial glacial portions indicate most translational, were probably initiated acceleration, failed as aggregate slope failures. How generated from remains however, unclear. Estimates recurrence interval earthquakes continental may provide maximum estimates for Tsunamis caused atmospheric disturbances coastal more frequent those landslides, their amplitudes smaller. Among possible far-field earthquake sources, only located within Gulf Cadiz or west Tore-Madeira Rise affect It questionable whether Puerto Rico Trench capable producing large enough will More information needed evaluate potential northern Cuba fold-and-thrust belt. volcano flank collapse Canary Islands smaller originally stated, there magnitude frequency Azores Islands. Both deterministic probabilistic methods available application margin, implementation requires currently available.

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