作者: Kirsten Simmons , Manoj Gambhir , Juan Leon , Ben Lopman
关键词: Transmission (mechanics) 、 Economic benefits 、 Young adult 、 Biology 、 Duration (project management) 、 Demography 、 Immunity 、 Incidence (epidemiology) 、 Norovirus 、 Immunology 、 Vaccination
摘要: The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed be from 6 months 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates the NoV, we developed a mathematical model community NoV transmission. was parameterized literature and also fit age-specific incidence data England Wales by using maximum likelihood. We scenarios determine effect unknowns regarding transmission on immunity. In various models, estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2-5.1) 8.7 6.8-11.3) Moreover, calculated that children (<5 years) much more infectious than older adults. If vaccine can achieve protection for natural indicated our results, its potential health economic benefits could substantial.