Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis

作者: Kirsten Simmons , Manoj Gambhir , Juan Leon , Ben Lopman

DOI: 10.3201/EID1908.130472

关键词: Transmission (mechanics)Economic benefitsYoung adultBiologyDuration (project management)DemographyImmunityIncidence (epidemiology)NorovirusImmunologyVaccination

摘要: The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed be from 6 months 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates the NoV, we developed a mathematical model community NoV transmission. was parameterized literature and also fit age-specific incidence data England Wales by using maximum likelihood. We scenarios determine effect unknowns regarding transmission on immunity. In various models, estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2-5.1) 8.7 6.8-11.3) Moreover, calculated that children (<5 years) much more infectious than older adults. If vaccine can achieve protection for natural indicated our results, its potential health economic benefits could substantial.

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