Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

摘要: Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes species physiology, phenology, and decreased body size. Such modifications can population dynamics could lead to life cycle demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring impacts future trends ectotherms' persistence are lacking. Here we investigate climates a model vertebrate ectotherm using large-scale experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions 18 seminatural populations over two years obtain present treatment warm matching IPCC predictions for climate. Warmer caused faster growth, an earlier reproductive onset, increased voltinism, leading highly accelerated but also decrease adult survival. A matrix predicts our experiment go extinct around 20 y. Comparing encountered by across Europe, suggest significant number at southern range distribution. Our findings stress importance approaches entire more accurately climates.