Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change

摘要: Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These tend be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating time based a constant lower temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT laboratory experiments can improve the ability SDMs shifts six U.K. butterflies response recent climate warming. We find that and (5°C) degree-day perform similarly at predicting distributions during period 1970–1982. However, when for 1970–1982 projected 1995–1999 2000–2004, modestly outperform models. Our results suggest that, while including physiology correlative may enhance predictions species' responses change, more detailed needed adequately account interspecific physiological differences.