Effect of climate change on the distribution of Magnolia schiedeana: a threatened species

摘要: The effects of climate change on biodiversity are imminent, and these turn out to be particularly alarming for the tropi- cal montane cloud forest. disappearance fragments this forest is expected, along with some their most characteristic species, such as Magnolia schiedeana. Mexico, through National System Protected Natural Areas, must consider protection strategies those species distributed within Areas that will affected by change. This study delimits distribution M. schiedeana in ecological niche future modeling under two pe- riods: years 2040 2080. These models tend move towards northeastern Mexico. potential declines 0.36% 1.94% fi rst second periods, respectively. From result, role long-term conservation was analyzed, prompting a proposal focus efforts following Areas: (1) At federal level: Biosphere Reserve Sierra Gorda Canon de Metztitlan, Cuenca del Rio Necaxa El Potosi, Park Chico, Cofre Perote, Pico Orizaba Los Marmoles, Nevado Toluca. (2) state Cerro las Culebras, la Galaxia, Macuiltepetl, Tejar Garnica,