Effect of sea-level rise on piping plover (Charadrius melodus) breeding habitat

摘要: Abstract Climate change is raising sea levels, threatening many low-lying coastal areas and associated wildlife. We assessed the threat of sea-level rise (SLR) to breeding habitat federally threatened piping plover on barrier islands Suffolk County, New York. determined extent over next 100 years under several SLR estimates, as well interactive effects development storm surge. found that if cannot migrate, likely reduce areas. However, able migrate upslope inland, could actually increase with SLR. Unfortunately, this potential gain stymied by human development, which we migrating 5–12%, depending estimates. also spatial configuration developed mattered more than intensity in blocking migration area. Our results raise concern likelihood increased conflict between protection recreation become a larger proportion future. Finally, our highlight risk from synergism storms, estimate large hurricane flood up 95% habitat. To assure future these islands, management needs promote natural overwash migration, while minimizing adjacent