Development of an Individualized Prediction Calculator for the Benefit of Postoperative Radiotherapy in Patients with Surgically Resected De Novo Stage IV Breast Cancer.

摘要: Purpose: Locoregional treatment has been increasingly adopted for metastatic breast cancer at presentation. This study aims to develop an individualized calculator predict the benefit of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) patients with surgically resected de novo stage IV cancer. Methods and Materials: We searched Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) database diagnosed between 2010 2014. After applying exclusion criteria, a total 4473 were included in analysis. Propensity score matching was used balance individual characteristics patients. identifying significant prognosticators, nomogram developed using multivariate regression models internally validated. A web-based then constructed fitted survival prediction model. Results: With median follow-up 34 months, three-year overall (OS) rates 54.1% surgery alone group 63.5% + PORT (p < 0.001). The maintained after propensity Interaction testing prognostic variables found interactions presence brain metastasis = 0.001), hormonal receptor expression 0.018). reviewing performance various models, log-normal distributed model adopted, C-index 0.695. calibration plot verified that predicted strongly correlated actual OS rates. provide estimates according PORT. Conclusion: significantly improved rates, though affected by number factors. successfully prognosis These tools are expected be useful clinical practice design related trials.