Projection of Iron Ore Production

摘要: A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scenarios and a sensitivity analysis. The supply-driven modelling approach follows Mohr (Projection fossil fuel supply demand interactions, PhD Thesis, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6782, 2010) using an ultimately recoverable resource 346 Gt ore. Production estimated to have choppy plateau starting in 2017 until 2050 after which rapidly declines. undulating due Chinese peaking earlier followed by Australia Brazil turn. Alternative indicate that the model sensitive increases Australian Brazilian resources, African can shift peak date only if Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) 5 times larger than estimate used. Changes for driven substitution or recycling are not modelled. relatively near-term likely create global challenge manufacturing construction economy.