Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study

摘要: Summary Our aim was to assess whether a combination of seasonal climate forecasts, monitoring meteorological conditions, and early detection cases could have helped prevent the 2002 malaria emergency in highlands western Kenya. Seasonal forecasts did not anticipate heavy rainfall. Rainfall data gave timely reliable warnings; but monthly surveillance out-patients no effective alarm, though it help confirm that normal rainfall conditions Kisii Central Gucha led typical resurgent outbreaks whereas exceptional Nandi Kericho true epidemics. Management highlands, including improved planning for annual outbreak, augmented by simple central nationwide warning, represents feasible strategy increasing epidemic preparedness