Long-term responses in arctic ungulate dynamics to changes in climatic and trophic processes

摘要: Following predictions from climatic general circulation models, the effects of perturbations in global climate are expected to be most pronounced Northern Hemisphere. Elaborating on a recently developed plant–herbivore–climate model, we explore statistically how different winter regimes and density-dependent processes during past century have affected population dynamics two arctic ungulate species. Our analyses were performed six muskox caribou populations. In muskoxen, variation climate, mediated through North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explained up 24% interannual abundance, whereas 16% was by NAO. Muskoxen responded negatively following warm snowy winters, dry winters. Direct delayed density dependence recorded populations 32% 90% variations abundance muskoxen caribou, respectively.