Analytical Models for Quantifying Travel Time Variability Based on Stochastic Capacity and Demand Distributions

摘要: As an essential attribute in travelers’ route and departure time decision, travel reliability serves as important quality-of-service measure for dynamic transportation systems. This paper investigates a fundamental problem of quantifying variability from its root sources: stochastic capacity demand variations that follow commonly used log-normal distributions. A volume-to-capacity ratio-based function point queue model are to demonstrate how day-to-day can be explained the underlying One finding is close form solutions derived formulate random demand/capacity distributions, but there certain cases where such does not exist numerical approximation methods required. also uses simplified peak-hour profiles estimate time-of-day or time-dependent functions at traffic bottlenecks. The proposed models provide theoretically rigorous practically usefully tools understand causes unreliability evaluate system-wide benefit reducing variability.