The relationship between climate, diseases of domestic animals and human-carnivore conflicts

摘要: Abstract Human-carnivore conflicts over livestock predation threaten biodiversity conservation and rural development, but the impact of climate its change on such is insufficiently studied. The effect climatic factors diseases predation-prone domestic animals then unstudied, potentially significant. This empirical case study addressed conflict between people leopards ( Panthera pardus ) in Hyrcanian humid temperate forest (Iran). We analyzed our questionnaire other data from all 34 villages around Golestan National Park terms probabilities human-leopard predation, WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Using multiple predictive modeling approaches (generalized linear GLM, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines MARS, Bayesian Belief Network BBN, BIOCLIM DOMAIN), we show that continentality precipitation patterns affect diseases, more lead to conflicts. Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) scenarios forecast aridization area 2041–2080 a resultant decline disease by 18.4–21.4% 10.4–11.9%, respectively. conclude can drive human-carnivore which may become less intense with projected studied environment.