The effectiveness of classical swine fever surveillance programmes in The Netherlands.

摘要: Consequences of classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics depend on the control measures, but also number infected herds at end high-risk period (HRP). Surveillance programmes aim to keep this as low possible, so effectiveness surveillance can be measured by HRP. In paper, an evaluation following five Dutch CSF is presented: (1) routine gross pathology severely diseased pigs; (2) virological tests tonsils all pigs, submitted under 1; (3) daily clinical observation farmer; (4) periodic inspection a veterinarian; (5) leucocyte counts in blood samples from animals herd where antimicrobial 'group therapy' started. The was done modelling study, which virus transmission, disease development, and actions diagnostic were simulated. Also, yearly costs calculated, direct related It appeared that current programmes, without counts, HRP below 20 with 95% probability. Leaving out most-expensive programme (12.5 M? per year) does not change result - indicating (for surveillance) could well stopped. If programme, currently effective due sample submission rate, optimally applied, 95th percentile reduced 10 herds. However, whether application beneficial unclear, because uncertainty economic benefits many expected false-positive each year.