Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert’s Curve via Theoretical Modeling

摘要: A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The does not assume Hubbert’s bell curve, an asymmetric or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and use data as input. in close agreement with actual until the 1979 crisis, R 2 value greater than 0.98. Whilst indicates that ideal curve slightly asymmetric, which differs from compares well Hubbert model, values excess 0.95. Amending to take into account assuming ultimately recoverable resources are range 2–3 trillion barrels, amended predicts peak between 2010 2025. for case when 2.2 peaks 2013.