Stochastic Analysis and Forecasts of the Patterns of Speed, Acceleration, and Levels of Material Stock Accumulation in Society

摘要: The recent acceleration of urbanization and industrialization many parts the developing world, most notably in Asia, has resulted a fast-increasing demand for accumulation construction materials society. Despite importance physical stocks society, empirical assessment total material stock buildings infrastructure reasons its growth have been underexplored sustainability literature. We propose an innovative approach explaining dynamics society create country typology trajectories using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology, stochastic commonly used business studies economics to inspect forecast time series. This enables us scenarios future building including uncertainty estimates. find that so-far overlooked aspect trends holds key growth, despite tremendous variability characteristics, is limited only four archetypal patterns. ability nations change their pattern will be determining factor global sustainability.