Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change

摘要: While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group actors, priorities, and world views, presence deep uncertainties further challenges decision-making framework by questioning robustness all purportedly solutions. This paper summarizes additional uncertainty that created climate change, reviews tools are available to project change (including downscaling techniques) assess quantify corresponding uncertainty. Assuming other cannot be eliminated over short term (and probably even longer term), it then existing methodologies able deal with climate-related uncertainty, namely cost-benefit analysis under real options, robust making, informed analysis. It also provides examples applications these methodologies, highlighting their pros cons domain applicability. The concludes impossible define "best" solution or prescribe particular methodology in general. Instead, a menu required, together some indications which strategies most appropriate contexts. based set interviews decision-makers, World Bank leaders, literature review aims at helping decision-makers identify method more given context, as function project's lifetime, cost, vulnerability.