Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease

摘要: Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need represent this seasonality be able make realistic predictions about the future a population effectiveness human interventions. Managing modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care that transmission dynamics is critical consideration etiology both diseases, with different paradigms requiring risk management strategies. Since infectious diseases among depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms could also seasonally. A specific regard confronted by modellers whether contact rate between individuals density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue seasonal behavior changes lead shift density frequency dependence. This hypothesis explored case chronic wasting (CWD), fatal affects deer, elk moose many areas North America. Specifically, we introduce strategic CWD model based direct accounts for habitats occupied, guided information derived from cervid ecology. The composed summer winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, frequency-dependent dynamics, respectively. includes impulsive birth events rate. determine basic reproduction number as weighted average two numbers. parameterize data scientific literature deer ecology, conduct global local sensitivity analyses number. explore culling strategies CWD: although seems an effective eradication strategy, total limited requirement preserve herd.