Managing water-use trade-offs in a semi-arid river delta to sustain multiple ecosystem services: a modeling approach

摘要: Managing trade-offs among water uses in a river basin to sustain multiple ecosystem services is crucial for adaptation changing flow regimes. Here we analyze the trade-off between irrigation and fisheries Amudarya, semi-arid Central Asia, using an optimal control agent-based modeling approach. With approach (OCA), identify economic ecological conditions sharing regime where social manager controls withdrawals fish harvesting. model (ABM), relax some of assumptions OCA investigate how localized, individual agents with varied use histories adapt their activities local resource conditions. Variation farmers’ initial labor allocations two results regimes only one activity or both. Global returns income equality are highest mixed regime. The also more robust variability because fishing can compensate decreased agricultural performance midstream regions. Thus, allowing improve coupled social-ecological system’s its resilience. We observe lock-in effect similar current situation agriculture dominant transition balanced allocation has proven be extremely difficult. As ABM, this extent attributed difficulties achieving sufficient revenues from when upstream high. Regulations incentives needed overcome those barriers, facilitate progress towards integrated management.