Enhancing resilience to water flow uncertainty by integrating environmental flows into water management in the Amudarya River, Central Asia

摘要: Abstract The wetlands of the Amudarya River delta in Uzbekistan provide valuable ecosystem services to local human population which has suffered severely from loss Aral Sea, desertification and post-soviet socio-economic transition. region is also particularly vulnerable impacts climate change as a recent severe drought shown. In this contribution, we assess potential implications incorporating environmental flows into management for improving provision wetland enhancing resilience social-ecological system river runoff uncertainty. Our assessment based on analyses 1) current vulnerability deltaic years low water availability, 2) expected regional its impact wetlands, 3) alternative use options enhance under changing climate. results ranking these with respect their benefits agriculture. Their realization, however, poses challenges that cannot be tackled by technical interventions redistribution efficiency increase alone but call institutional changes moves towards multi-purpose use. diversification livelihood would allow or socio-politically induced flow.