Exploring Resilience and Transformability of a River Basin in the Face of Socioeconomic and Ecological Crisis: an Example from the Amudarya River Basin, Central Asia

摘要: Water from the Amudarya River is a vital and strategic resource for semi-arid Uzbekistan because of its heavy reliance on irrigated agriculture. The Uzbek water management regime, however, has proven to be rather reluctant adapt changing environmental socio-political conditions despite recent massive pressures caused by political, environmental, or donor-induced developments in region. aim this paper explore reasons low adaptability sector assess implications resilience social-ecological system (SES). By analyzing past losses as well first attempts at institutional change land management, we identify drivers structural factors mechanisms that act barriers adaptation transformation towards more sustainable system. With collapse Aral Sea fisheries basin-wide large scale soil salinization, SES Basin shifted new, less desirable regime. However, high social keeping it current undesirable state further degrades long-term resilience. Our analysis identifies reinforcing feedbacks ecological dynamics, vested interests, patronage contribute resistance keep locked unsustainable state. These are rooted history river basin, such economic dependence cotton state-centered approach. window opportunity significant changes larger setting might have been open after breakup Soviet Union was could not used achieve resources use. Measures aimed an incremental improvement situation sufficient prevent Resilience transformability (political, economic, settings) needed enable smaller scales (regional local management) change. identified opportunities arising slow acceptance bottom-up institutions extensive restoration capacity ecosystems.