Water, Food, and Energy Security: An Elusive Search for Balance in Central Asia

摘要: The development and use of water resources in the Amu Darya Basin remain under debate face increasing population associated scarcities water, food, energy. upstream riparian, mountain nation Tajikistan, wishes to develop its hydropower potential. Three downstream states wish sustain or increase their economic benefits from used for irrigation. Growing tensions among riparian countries on Vakhsh River, a tributary Darya, have halted Tajikistan’s proposed Rogun Dam. This paper examines potential mutually beneficial allocation demands Using long-term data Basin’s energy potential, supplies, irrigated land, crop demands, this analyzes total welfare future 20-year time horizon. Two supply scenarios each two policy choices are examined. Results show that constrained optimization operation Dam has farm income country, while producing considerable Tajikistan. Political negotiation much better will be needed discover implement gains indicated by study.