Counting bears in the Iranian Caucasus: Remarkable mismatch between scientifically-sound population estimates and perceptions

摘要: Abstract Lack of reliable information on the status species often leads managers to exclusively rely experiential knowledge, opinions or perceptions, usually derived from personnel associated with natural resource management agencies. Yet, accuracy these sources remains largely untested. We approached this challenge, which is particularly common for wildlife monitoring programs in developing countries, using a population Asian brown bears (Ursus arctos) Iranian Caucasus as case study. conducted noninvasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture (SCR) study estimate bear density across core protected area, Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve, and compared our abundance rangers' perceptions collated through interviews. The perceived by local rangers was between 3 5 times higher than SCR 40 (2.5–97.5% Bayesian Credible Intervals = 27–70; density: 4.88 bears/100 km2). Our results suggest that basing may result overestimating likelihood persistence. findings offer scientific baseline an evidence-based conservation policy Iran, broader Ecoregion. majority threatened terrestrial megafauna occur where collecting analyzing demographic data remain challenging. Delayed responses due lack of, erroneous knowledge such imperiled have serious consequences.