Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of main fruit species in Portugal

摘要: Thermal growing conditions of temperate fruit and nut species in Portugal are assessed by two indices: degree hours (GDH) chilling portions (CP). The first evaluates season heat accumulation (February–October), while the second determines chill during dormancy (October–February). These indices estimated based on gridded daily minimum maximum temperatures from a observation-based dataset (E-OBS). Both statistically downscaled to 1 km grid over mainland for 1981–2015 (35 years). Furthermore, multi-model climate change projections provided using four EURO-CORDEX global-regional model chains under future emission scenarios (RCP4.5 RCP8.5, 2041–2070). Overall, increases decreases projected most Portugal. However, owing frequent above-optimum trees, expected inner southern Portugal, which combined with significant reductions winter make this region affected change. Crop-specific GDH/CP diagrams eight classes (carob tree, almond chestnut citrus fruits, fresh fruits olive pine trees vines) analysed taking into account their current spatial distributions. Shifts thermal discussed. innovatively suitable measures at very-high resolution climates results may support Portuguese production sector planning strategies cope