作者: Laurie Garrett , David P Fidler
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PMED.0040330
关键词: Virus 、 Biology 、 Virology 、 Outbreak 、 Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 、 Pandemic 、 Economic growth 、 Human mortality from H5N1 、 Influenza A virus 、 Transmission (medicine) 、 Global health
摘要: Although the threat of pandemic influenza, spawned by continuing avian influenza A (H5N1) epidemics, has dropped off front pages, concern among experts continues to grow. At end 2005, only 17 countries had H5N1 outbreaks in chickens, ducks, or humans [1]. As September 2007, virus circulated 60 [1], mutations have been reported (for example, a patient Turkey [2] and another Thailand [3]), virologists public health officials nervously watch clusters probable human-to-human spread virus, such as 2004 Indonesia 2006 [4]. For reasons not fully understood, most human cases transmission since January occurred [5,6]. Recent studies begun characterize that may be prerequisite for efficient [7,8]. The world needs monitor each new order check mutations, which could transform into dangerous pathogen easily between people. How devastating might transformation be? In an age globalization commercial air travel, estimating how great toll lethal inflict is difficult. Estimates deaths from last bird-to-human flu 1918 range 50 100 million [9], provides glimpse global damage caused accelerated 21st century globalization.