Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: the Canadian notifiable avian influenza model.

摘要: Abstract Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and This is natural development because surveillance dynamic process that needs adapt changing circumstances – difficulty justification for, documentation of, presentation acceptance changes. Our objective propose systematic approach present changes an existing scenario We used example how we adapted deterministic Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza published 2011 stochastic where definition sub-populations estimation probability introduction pathogen were modified. found standardized by Vanderstichel et al. (2013) modifications provided make model. believe new 2013 CanNAISS better than included more data. In particular, data on Canada last 5 years improve input parameters structure.