Scenario tree model for animal disease freedom framed in the OIE context using the example of a generic swine model for Aujeszky's disease in commercial swine in Canada.

摘要: "Freedom from animal disease" is an ambiguous concept that may have a different meaning in trade and science. For alone, there are levels of freedom OIE listed diseases. A country can: be recognized by to "officially free"; self-declare freedom, with no official recognition the OIE; or report disease as absent (no occurrence) six-monthly reports. In science, we apply scenario tree models calculate probability population being free at given prevalence provide evidence disease. Here, link science application describing how model contribute country's claim We combine idea standardized presentation for having similar two diseases suggest simple generic help veterinary authorities build evaluate freedom. aim develop is: species specific, has structure. The specific objectives were: explore described Terrestrial Animal Health Code; describe disease; present swine Canada's domestic (commercial) applied Aujeszky's (AD). particular, historical survey data, data mining affect sampling strategies. Finally, frame context AD. found useful support either "recognized officially free" part self-declaration but should not stand alone claim. AD demonstrated benefit combining three sources surveillance helped design next year. one piece strongly supported fact never been detected Canada.