Demonstrating freedom from disease using multiple complex data sources 2: case study--classical swine fever in Denmark.

摘要: A method for quantitative evaluation of surveillance disease freedom has been presented in the accompanying paper (Martin et al., 2007). This presents an application methods, using as example classical swine fever (CSF) Denmark 2005. scenario tree model is abattoir-based serology component Danish CSF system, which blood samples are collected ad hoc abattoir sampling process, from adult pigs originating breeding herds Denmark. The incorporates effects targeting (differential risk seropositivity) associated with age and location (county), clustering within herds. time period one month was used analysis. Records year 2005 were analysed, representing 25,332 3528 herds; all negative CSF-specific antibodies. Design prevalences 0.1-1% 5% animals infected herd used. estimated mean system (SSC) sensitivities (probability that SSC would give a positive outcome given processed country at design prevalences) per 0.18, 0.63 0.86, among-herd 0.001, 0.005 0.01. probabilities population free each these prevalences, after accumulated data, 0.91, 1.00 1.00. Targeting adults South Jutland to approximately 1.9, 1.6 1.4 times sensitivity proportionally representative program three prevalences.