Comparison of output-based approaches used to substantiate bovine tuberculosis free status in Danish cattle herds

摘要: Abstract We compared two published studies based on different output-based surveillance models, which were used for evaluating the performance of meat inspection systems in cattle and to substantiate freedom from bovine tuberculosis (bTB) Denmark. The current methods (CMI) vs. visual-only (VOI). In one study, system sensitivity (SSe) was estimated bTB free status. other study SSe estimation probability (PFree), epidemiological concept negative predictive value Both found that changing CMI VOI would markedly decrease SSe. However, reported diverging conclusions regarding effect substantiation Denmark as a country, if be introduced. objectives this work were: (a) investigate reasons why models differed, (b) create hybrid model elements both evaluate impact change VOI. PFree approach parametrized with inputs according newest available information. updated an annual basis each 42 years test-negative data (1995–2037), while assuming low ( most important difference between chosen status (SSe PFree) number considered. With model, reached level >95% after first year remained ≥96% until end analyzed period. It is appropriate use confidence status, when results can documented over extended period time, maintaining introduction into population. For Denmark, should kept