Assessment of the probability of introduction of bovine tuberculosis to Danish cattle farms via imports of live cattle from abroad and immigrant workers

摘要: Denmark has been recognized as officially free (OTF) from bovine tuberculosis (bTB) since 1980. In this study, we estimated the annual probability (PIntro) of introducing Mycobacterium bovis into Danish cattle population, through (a) imports and (b) foreign personnel working in herds. Data 2000 to 2013 with date, number origin imported live were obtained Cattle Federation. Information on immigrants herds was a questionnaire sent by email sample farmers (N=460). Inputs data analysis, expert opinion, literature fed three stochastic scenario tree models used simulate effect import trade patterns, contact between immigrant workers cattle. We also investigated opportunity testing animals OTF countries tuberculin skin test non-OTF interferon-γ (IFN-γ), exemplified using year 2009 where higher than usual. Results showed that PIntro is driven mainly importation The combined median M. population either or infectious workers, ranged 0.3% (90% prediction interval (P.I.): 0.04%:1.4%) 2001 4.9% P.I.: 0.6%; 19.2%) 2009. estimates 14 years 0.7% (median 90% 0.08%; 3.5%). Hence, average, at least one introduction each 143 could be expected, if does not change remarkably future. If increases, compared analyzed, additional might considered. For example, 2009, would have reduced 0.8% 0.1%; 4.7%) had tested IFN-γ test. presented model easily other similar bTB status Denmark, wildlife represents negligible infection for domestic represent main pathway local population.