Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Thailand

摘要: Abstract Background In most low- and middle-income countries, hepatitis A virus (HAV) is shifting or expected to shift from high endemicity intermediate low endemicity. decreased risk of HAV infection will cause an increase in the average age at therefore proportion infections that results severe disease. Mathematical models can provide insights into factors contributing this epidemiological transition. Methods An MSLIR compartmental dynamic transmission model stratified by setting (rural urban) was developed calibrated with demographic, environmental, data Thailand. modeled as a function urbanization access clean drinking water. The used project various measures. Results midpoint population immunity remains considerably younger rural areas than urban areas. mean symptomatic Thailand has shifted childhood toward early adulthood transitioning middle showed significant decrease incidence rates total settings over past several decades water increased, although overall rate projected slightly coming decades. Conclusions Modeling relationship between water, urbanization, novel approach estimation trends future projections. This provides about epidemiology could be evaluate public health impact vaccination other interventions diversity settings.