Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

摘要: Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis predicted be severely impacted by change. Recent records suggest that the Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, expanding southward, possibly due change, sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define vector’s climatic niche explore future projections under scenarios. occurrence were compiled from literature, museum collections Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables used as predictors in six ecological model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression Random Forest). Projections 2050 17 general circulation models two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” “high increase”. Ensemble consensus maps produced overlapping binary predictions. Final outputs showed good performance significance. use species absence data substantially improved performance. Currently, L. widely distributed region, Atlantic Forest savannah regions Central Brazil. Future indicate expansion climatically suitable area vector both scenarios, towards higher latitudes elevations. likely find increasingly conditions its into areas where population size density much larger than they current locations. If environmental predicted, range expand southeastern central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay further Amazonian Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia Venezuela. These will only become however, if have competent reservoir hosts transmission dynamics matching those region.