Mapping ecological risks with a portfolio-based technique: incorporating uncertainty and decision-making preferences.

作者: Denys Yemshanov , Frank H. Koch , Mark Ducey , Klaus Koehler

DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12061

关键词: Stochastic dominanceEcologyDecision theoryUncertainty quantificationGeographic MappingRisk premiumPortfolioRisk assessmentProduct (category theory)Computer science

摘要: Aim Geographic mapping of risks is a useful analytical step in ecological risk assessments and particular, analyses aimed to estimate associated with introductions invasive organisms. In this paper, we approach species as portfolio allocation problem apply techniques from decision theory build an invasion map that combines uncertainty single product. Location Canada. Methods We divide the study area into set spatial domains treat each domain individual ‘portfolio’ unique distribution expected impacts invasion. The then mapped by finding nested ‘efficient’ sets identify geographic areas exhibiting worst combinations estimated estimate. For Canadian municipalities, quantify given location will receive forest pests commercial freight transported via North American road network. We compare employ concepts mean-variance (M-V) frontiers second-degree stochastic dominance. Results While both methods based on M-V dominance principles identified similar highest risk, they differed how demarcated moderate-risk areas. Furthermore, address different ways, treating it premium (in case frontiers) or producing risk-averse delineations dominance). Main conclusions The portfolio-based offers viable strategy for dealing typically wide variability estimates caused lack knowledge about new invader. methodology also provides tractable way incorporating decision-making preferences final thus better aligns particular scenarios organism concern.

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