The Use of Credible Intervals in Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results

摘要: Since 1965, the National Weather Service (NWS) in United States has routinely issued precipitation probability forecasts to general public. Forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature, however, are still expressed categorical terms. NWS usually give point when forecasting temperature (e. g., “the high tomorrow will be 75°F”), such do not provide any information about uncertainty inherent forecasts. Point sometimes replaced by interval between 73°F 77°F”), but only a very informal representation forecaster’s uncertainty. The potential user forecast does know whether forecaster is almost certain that fall or feels, say, there 50-50 chance interval.