credible interval temperature forecasts
作者： Cameron R. Peterson , Kurt J. Snapper , Allan H. Murphy
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1972)053<0966:CITF>2.0.CO;2
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摘要: Abstract An experiment was conducted in which forecasters expressed temperature forecasts terms of intervals variable width and fixed probability. The use such intervals, called credible permits to describe the uncertainty inherent their a meaningful, quantitative way. results indicate that can quantify this information, information may be important potential users these forecasts. Several recommendations are made regarding interval forecasting on an operational basis.
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