PREDICTION OF OSTEOPOROTIC FRACTURES IN THE GENERAL POPULATION BY A FRACTURE RISK SCORE A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP AMONG MIDDLE-AGED WOMEN

摘要: The possibility of predicting the occurrence fractures on basis risk factors for osteoporosis was evaluated between 1975 and 1986 in a follow-up study 1,014 women aged 45-64 years from Dutch population sample. During 9-year period follow-up, 16% experienced one or more fractures. Of 12 historical radiologic which are considered important biomedical literature, none were found to be strong indicators future Complete information available 742 women. A fracture score calculated each person by combining simultaneous influence several multivariate analysis. discriminated relatively well with high low risks ratio highest lowest quintiles 6.4 all 7.0 type I osteoporotic (fractures vertebral bodies distal forearm). However, if belonging quintile as screening test prediction, sensitivity specificity poor: 0.37 0.84, respectively, 0.48 0.83, These results indicate that it might not efficient use factor status select prevention programs.