A Regional Landscape Analysis and Prediction of Favorable Gray Wolf Habitat in the Northern Great Lakes Region

摘要: Over the past 15 years endangered eastern timber wolf (Canis lupus lycaon) has been slowly recolonizing northern Wisconsin and, more recently, upper Michigan, largely by dispersing from Minnesota (where it is listed as threatened). We have used geographic information systems (GISs) and spatial radiocollar data on wolves in to assess importance of factors defining favorable habitat. built a multiple logistic regression model applied Great Lakes states estimate amount distribution habitat at regional landscape scale. Our results suggest that areas with high probability are extensive than previously estimated Lake States. Several variables were significant comparing new pack nonpack areas, including land ownership class, cover type, road density, human population, indices such fractal dimension (land patch boundary complexity), type contagion, diversity, dominance. Road density most important predictor models. The indicate public forest private industrial both managing for broad-ranging animal wolf. portray highly fragmented along development corridors Wisconsin, which may be responsible slow growth population. Upper just beginning colonized wolves, very large, contiguous likely approaching those northeastern Minnesota. If continuing or control restrict moving becomes marginal through further fragmentation, Michigan potential maintain population independent serve source Wisconsin. However, simple island/corridor does not seem apply. Wolves apparently move throughout landscape, across many unfavorable but establishment success restricted higher quality Source-sink dynamics operating here, they reduction near term affect recovery Michigan. analysis an example use long-term monitoring large-scale cross-boundary must done solve complex questions resource management conservation. A lo largo de los ultimos anos el lobo gris (Cannis lycaon), en peligro extincion ha venido recolonizando lentamente norte y mas recientemente, principalmente traves su dispersion desde (donde se encuentra listado como amenazado). En este estudio usamos SIG datos espaciales radio-collares, colocados lobos recolonizadores para evaluar la importancia factores escala del paisaje definicion lobo. Construimos un modelo regresion logistica aplicado Estados Grandes Lagos, estimar cantidad distribucion espacial una paisajistica Nuestros resultados sugieren que las con alta probabilidad poseer favorable, son amplias previamente estimado Lagos. Diversas fueron significativas comparacion nuevas manadas respecto sin manadas, incluyendo clases tenencia tierra, tipo cobertura, densidad rutas, poblacion, tales (complejidad parches cobertura), contagio tipos diversidad paisaje, dominancia paisaje. La rutas predictoras importantes logistica. Los indican tanto bosques publicas, privados bajo explotacion, manejo amplio rango distribucion, describen altamente fragmentado, corredores desarrollo esta situacion seria responsable lento crecimiento poblacion lobos. El sector superior recien comenzando ser colonizado por lobos, presenta grandes contiguas apropiado, acercan aquellas noreste Si continuado o limita dispersantes traslado hace debido mayor fragmentacion, tiene potencial mantener significativa forma independiente asi servir fuente Sin embargo, isla/corredor no parece aplicable. Aparentemente, mueven muchas favorables, pero exito establecimiento restringido calidad. Una dinamica fuentesumidero (“source-sink”) podria estar operando caso, sugiere reduccion corto plazo afectar recuperacion Nuestro analisis es ejemplo uso monitoreo debe llevado cabo resolver preguntas complejas recursos conservacion.