Landscape patterns of development under two alternative scenarios: Implications for conservation

摘要: The spatial pattern of urban development has important ecological and conservation implications. Urban sprawl, characterized by scattered low-density development, is commonly criticized for its negative impact. In response, growth management policies have been proposed in order to promote compact which generally considered more favorable from an perspective. Spatial simulations land cover change are useful comparing scenarios their potential effects. One aspect that not received much attention how the rate may affect differences between sprawl terms impact biodiversity at landscape scale. Our goal this study was compare landscape-scale implications sprawling (expected under unregulated development) versus (promoted policies) different rates. We focused on Israel's Mediterranean region—a region high human population density heterogeneous cover. Using a cellular automata model, DINAMICA-EGO, we calibrated validated model period 1998 2007. as reference, simulated two 20 years into future: (resulting pattern) regulated pattern). For each scenario analyzed range rates, compared built-up area patterns, several landscape-level attributes natural habitats, priority areas, protected areas. found rates comparable those observed during 1998–2007, there no major difference scenarios. At higher some emerged: core areas were fragmented smaller extent, proportion expected undergo scenario. Overall, conservation. Since exhibited only minor lower modifications policy measures included should be improve effectiveness.