Warming effects in the western Antarctic Peninsula ecosystem: the role of population dynamic models for explaining and predicting penguin trends

摘要: The western Antarctica Peninsula and Scotia Sea ecosystems appear to be driven by complex links between climatic variables, primary productivity, krill Avian predators. There are several studies reporting statistical relationships climate, Penguin population size. Adelie (Pygoscelis adeliae), Chinstrap (P. antarctica) Gentoo papua) penguins influenced interannual variability in sea-ice extent biomass. In this paper we developed simple conceptual models decipher the role of climate fluctuations on dynamics these three Pygoscelis penguin species inhabiting Antarctic region. Our results suggest that relevant processes underlying at King George Island (South Shetland Islands) intra-specific competition combined effects abundance cover. using theoretical support change, specifically regional warming Peninsula, represents a major driver. At our study site, showed species-specific responses change. While were only abundance, contrasting trends better explained “sea-ice hypothesis”. We think proper dynamic modeling theory essential for deciphering proposing ecological mechanisms populations.